The Politics of Thirst: Water Security and Power Struggles in the Middle East

Abstract

Water scarcity has emerged as one of the most critical geopolitical and environmental challenges in the Middle East. Despite representing only 1.4% of the world’s renewable freshwater, the region houses over 6% of the global population, rendering it the most water-scarce region globally. “This paper explores the complex interplay between water scarcity, political tensions, and regional power struggles, focusing on the role of shared river systems, virtual water trade, and the shifting political economy of agriculture. It investigates how freshwater shortages—exacerbated by climate change, rising populations, urban expansion, and inefficient agricultural practices—have led to transboundary tensions, particularly in the cases of the Iran-Taliban conflict over the Helmand River, and the ongoing Nile dispute involving Egypt and Ethiopia. Furthermore, the paper assesses the socio-political consequences of water insecurity, including displacement, disease outbreaks, and the weakening of rural livelihoods. It also analyzes the diminishing role of agriculture in national GDPs and its impact on state interests in water management. The study emphasizes how virtual water imports through grain trade and desalination initiatives have temporarily mitigated crises, yet they highlight the region’s structural dependency on external sources.